Advantage BJP as Opposition join forces to move No-Confidence Motion

The demand for the special status of Andhra Pradesh, which is ruled by the TDP under Chief Minister Naidu, is the issue on which the motion has been moved on Wednesday, the first day of the parliament's monsoon session.

Though the TDP had tried to move a similar motion in the winter session, Naidu's political outfit had failed to table it in the parliament amid the disruptions.

But with time, political scenarios have changed. The successive by-poll defeats of the BJP gave much needed oxygen to the Opposition of the country.

The BJP, which stormed to power in 2014 with 282 seats alone, fell below the majority mark (272) for the first time in four years.

Though the BJP, which is just one seat short of the majority mark, is expected to cross the river comfortably with the support of its allies, who together take the tally to 314.

The TDP may have got the support of the Congress, Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), but the Opposition seems to be staring at an imminent defeat in the lower house of the parliament without any major political development.

Indian political history reminds it is only on one occasion a no-confidence motion succeeded and that was way back in 1979.

Then Prime Minister Morarji Desai had to vacate his office on Jan 12, 1979, after he had lost the no-confidence motion, which was brought against his government.

Though United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi, who is also a Lok Sabha MP, said they have the numbers, Union Minister Ananth Kumar mocked the former saying she is "weak in mathematics".

Taking a jibe at Sonia, Kumar said as quoted by Deccan Chronicle, "Sonia ji's math is weak. They had calculated similarly in 1996. We know what happened then. Their calculation is wrong yet again. The Modi govt has majority both inside and outside Parliament. NDA will vote against no-confidence motion. You will see support for us from all directions."

The Shiv Sena, though earlier had pledged to support the BJP, on Friday said it will abstain from voting. 

Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJP) has walked out of the Lok Sabha prior to the debate over the motion.

What is a no-confidence motion?

A no-confidence motion is a vote which states a person is longer deemed to stay in his office. It can be brought only in the Lok Sabha, which consists of members directly elected by people of the country, by opposition parties.

The motion requires the support of minimum 50 members to get admitted to discussion.

If the motion is passed and gets the majority of votes in favour of it, the government is bound to vacate its office.

So far in India, 26 no-confidence motions have been moved and approved in the Lok Sabha including the latest one brought against the Narendra Modi government.

Former Prime Minister late Indira Gandhi had faced the maximum number of no confidence motions (15).

Seats in present Lok Sabha

Total: 545

NDA: 314 [BJP: 271]

UPA: 66 [Cong: 48]

Others: 153 [AIADMK: 37, TMC: 34, BJD: 20, TDP: 16, TRS: 11, CPI-M: 9, SP: 7, AAP: 4, YSRCP: 4, AIUDF: 3, INLD: 2, AIMIM: 1, CPI: 1, JKNC: 1, JKPDP: 1, SWP: 1, JAP (L): 1]

Independents: 3

Vacant: 9

(By Souvik Ghosh)