China’s failure to push around the Indian troops in LAC will have a consequence: Opinion Writer

"More important, the failures motivate China's aggressive ruler—who as chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission, is the leader of the PLA—to launch another offensive against Indian positions," he wrote in his opinion piece published in Newsweek.

He said Indian soldiers fought back against Chinese counterparts ' ferociously' during the Galwan episode.

"Beijing won't admit the extent of the debacle," the opinion piece said.

"China's subsequent efforts to counter the Indian moves proved ineffective. At least for the moment, India's troops, in the southernmost of the three areas of conflict, are in control of territory once in Chinese hands," Gordon said.

Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior Indian intelligence official and now head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said Xi needs "a victory" and could force further conflict in Ladakh. 

In that conflict, the Chinese, Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center tells Newsweek, could roll out "joint mechanized warfare for which they have been preparing for 30 years."

Given the rapid buildup of Indian forces and their high state of readiness, Xi is not assured of the success that Ranade believes he craves and needs—especially because India's army has brought mechanized vehicles of its own to Ladakh.

In China's highly politicized system, the setbacks in Ladakh cannot be perceived as Xi's fault, so he will almost surely purge elements of the military. "PLA leaders begin to see little choice but to undertake offensive military actions to avoid becoming a victim of Xi's internal terror," Fisher says.

"What we are learning in 2020," Fisher notes, "is that Xi wants victories, and as the PLA is judged to have reached requisite levels of strength by rearming and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military." 

In the opinion piece, Gordon said: "Xi Jinping, however, has yet to show his military, in a fight, is worth a damn."

"Unfortunately, it looks like China's leader, who had looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, he appears absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break India apart," the writer wrote.