Climate shock warning: Earth could break heat records again before 2030, finds study

The report also found a 91 per cent likelihood that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.

The 1.5°C threshold is considered a critical benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change. Scientists have repeatedly cautioned that prolonged warming beyond this limit could significantly raise the risks of extreme weather events, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and mass displacement.

Climate goals still within reach

Despite the alarming projections, scientists clarified that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C limit do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term targets are out of reach. The agreement is based on average warming sustained over decades, rather than temperature spikes in individual years.

However, the findings highlight the accelerating pace of global warming and the growing frequency of extreme heat events worldwide.

According to the report, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are likely to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. There is also a 75 per cent chance that average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, becoming the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.

Arctic warming raises concern

The report further warned that the Arctic is expected to continue warming much faster than the rest of the planet.

Temperatures across the Arctic during the next five northern hemisphere winters are projected to average 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline — more than three-and-a-half times the expected global average increase over the same period.

Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. The shrinking sea ice is a major concern because it reduces the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, further accelerating global warming while disrupting ecosystems, weather systems and livelihoods in polar regions.

Rainfall patterns shifting worldwide

The report highlighted increasingly uneven rainfall patterns linked to climate change.

Above-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and several subtropical areas.

Wetter winter conditions are also likely across higher northern latitudes in the coming years.

The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centres and national weather agencies better prepare for climate-related risks that are rapidly becoming part of the world’s near-term reality.

The report was prepared by the UK Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.