India to receive ‘above normal’ showers in June, IMD raises monsoon forecast by 106%
New Delhi: India is set to receive above-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revising its forecast upwards to 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the June–September period.
The update, released on Tuesday, is a notch higher than the 105 percent projection made in April.
The LPA, a benchmark based on average rainfall over the past decades, stands at 868.6 mm. According to IMD, monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be “above normal” during the upcoming season.
Regionally, the forecast indicates above-normal rainfall over Central India and the South Peninsular region (more than 106% of LPA), normal rainfall over Northwest India (92–108% of LPA), and below-normal rainfall over Northeast India (less than 94% of LPA).
“During June to September 2025, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and East India and many areas of Northeast India where below normal rainfall is very likely,” IMD said in a statement.
The agency also expects June rainfall to exceed the norm.
“During June 2025, normal to above normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below normal rainfall is likely,” it said.
IMD's historical data shows that the southwest monsoon arrived earlier than usual in 2022 and 2024, with onset dates of May 29 and May 30, respectively.
In 2024, India experienced its wettest monsoon in four years, receiving 108 percent of the LPA, or 934.8 mm of rain.
As per the latest data, rainfall across the country has been 28.3 percent higher since March, reaching 155 mm. While Central and South Peninsular India have seen excess rainfall, Northwest, East and Northeast India have reported deficits.
IMD noted that above-average rainfall could support agricultural output and improve water availability, but also warned of potential downsides such as flooding, disruption in transport, public health issues, and ecological stress.
This year, the monsoon made landfall in Kerala on May 24, a full week ahead of its usual June 1 onset, marking the earliest arrival since 2009.
Monsoons are critical for India’s economy, influencing both the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.
A strong monsoon typically boosts Kharif crop sowing, which is crucial for rural incomes and food supply.
As per the latest IMD bulletin, conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to progress further into the remaining parts of the central Arabian Sea, more parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, most of westcentral Bay of Bengal, and additional regions in Northeast India, West Bengal, and Sikkim over the next 2–3 days.
IMD added that its operational forecasts for the monsoon onset date over Kerala have been accurate in all but one year—2015—since they began in 2005. Its predictions for the last five years (2020–2024) have also been on point.
A good monsoon is expected to benefit farmers this Kharif season, providing momentum to the agriculture sector, which remains the backbone of rural livelihoods across India.
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