Need to allocate remaining carbon budget in fair manner, CSE says on climate change

Developed countries have openly given their support to this goal; India and China have also shown their willingness to consider this temperature goal.

 

"While we welcome this increase in ambition, we would like to draw the attention of the climate negotiators to the need to allocate the remaining carbon budget in a fair manner to all countries so that there is a chance for meeting this temperature target," a CSE statement said.

 

"We would also like to emphasis the fact that meeting this temperature goal would require massive enhancement of financial and technological support from the developed countries to the developing countries so that they are able to move quickly onto low-carbon development pathways. In addition, developed countries will have to significantly increase the level of their own efforts and reach net zero emissions in the next 5-10 years. In the absence of such commitments, a 1.5 OC temperature target would remain a hollow shell – devoid of any real significance," it said.

  

As per the Fifth Assessment report of IPCC (AR5), for a 50 per cent probability of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degree Celsius, the total carbon dioxide emissions allowed from 2011 till 2100 amount to 550 giga-tonnes (Gt) of CO2. 

 

For a 33 per cent probability of keeping temperature increase below 1.5 degree Celsius, the corresponding figure for cumulative emissions is 850 Gt CO2. But if the world wants to raise the certainty of meeting this temperature goal to 66 per cent, then the budget shrinks to a mere 400 Gt CO2.

 

The UNFCCC’s “Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)” estimates that the global carbon dioxide emissions for 2011-2025 will aggregate to 542 Gt CO2 and for 2011-2030 will aggregate to 748 Gt CO2.

 

Comparing the existing INDC’s to the available budget indicates that for a better than even chance of meeting the 1.5 degree Celsius target, the remaining carbon budget is exhausted well before 2030.