PoK boils over: Anti-Islamabad group issues 48-hour ultimatum ahead of crucial elections

In a long post on X, the civil rights group has warned of launching the "grand and final" phase of protests if the government fails to respond.

The immediate trigger is the July 27 regional elections, with nominations set to begin on July 9. JAAC has announced a massive march to Muzaffarabad, raising the prospect of one of the region's biggest political confrontations in recent years.

Refugee seats become flashpoint

At the heart of the latest unrest is the demand to abolish 12 legislative assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees settled in Pakistan.

JAAC argues that these seats allow Islamabad to exercise disproportionate political influence over PoK.

According to journalist Luv Puri, the 12 refugee constituencies represent around 4.36 lakh registered voters in Pakistan, while the remaining 33 directly elected seats account for nearly 33 lakh voters residing in PoK, prompting criticism over unequal electoral representation, NDTV reported.

Adding to the controversy, the PoK Supreme Court ruled on June 7 that the reserved seats are constitutionally protected and cannot be removed through an executive order, requiring a constitutional amendment instead.

Economic grievances fuel protest movement

Beyond the refugee-seat issue, JAAC's 38-point charter reflects widespread economic discontent.

The organisation has demanded a review of hydropower agreements, increased subsidies on essential commodities such as flour, and lower electricity tariffs, arguing that residents should not pay high prices for power generated from resources within the region.

The demands highlight growing resentment over what many locals describe as political marginalisation and economic neglect.

JAAC's rise as a protest force

Established in 2023, the JAAC has quickly emerged as PoK's most influential civil rights platform.

The group gained prominence during the massive protests of May 2024, when strikes, sit-ins and road blockades paralysed large parts of the region over inflation and subsidy demands.

It organised another major agitation in September 2025, cementing its position as the leading voice of public protests.

Limited autonomy under Islamabad

Although Pakistan refers to the region as "Azad" (Free) Kashmir, its constitutional arrangement presents a different reality.

PoK is not formally part of Pakistan under Article 1 of the Pakistani Constitution and has no representation in Pakistan's Parliament.

While the region has its own President, Prime Minister, Supreme Court and Legislative Assembly, key powers remain with institutions overseen by Islamabad, particularly the Kashmir Council headed by Pakistan's Prime Minister.

The region's Constitution also requires election candidates to support accession to Pakistan, barring political parties or individuals advocating any alternative position.

Resource-rich region faces economic challenges

Despite being rich in forests, minerals and hydropower resources, PoK residents have long argued that the region receives little benefit from its natural wealth.

Nearly 70 per cent of Pakistan's irrigation water flows through the Indus river system originating in PoK, while hydropower projects in the region generate an estimated 10-15 per cent of Pakistan's electricity.

However, critics allege that revenues largely flow to mainland Pakistan while local infrastructure and public services remain underdeveloped.

Food insecurity and poor health indicators

Economic hardship remains one of the region's biggest concerns.

A 2025 study published in Nature found that nearly 66 per cent of PoK's population depends on agriculture and livestock, while 57.1 per cent face food insecurity. Around 29 per cent of residents are undernourished, with the figure rising sharply in mountainous areas.

Healthcare indicators also remain worrying. Pakistan's Voluntary National Review Report states that 39 per cent of children under five are stunted, while the maternal mortality ratio stands at 104 deaths per 100,000 live births.

Security situation remains fragile

The political unrest comes amid a deteriorating security environment.

Political activist Amjad Mirza has alleged that authorities have arrested more than 600 activists and that over 100 protesters have been killed during recent crackdowns, although these claims have not been independently verified.

Meanwhile, the European Union Agency for Asylum reported 39 security incidents, including armed clashes and explosions, across Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan between November 2024 and April 2026, resulting in 56 deaths.

Separately, the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies recorded 1,045 terror incidents and 1,139 fatalities across Pakistan in 2025, the country's highest death toll from terrorism in a decade, driven largely by the resurgence of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

India's stand on PoK

India has consistently maintained that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is an integral part of India.

Following Independence, Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession on October 26, 1947, acceding the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir to India.

India maintains that Pakistan subsequently occupied parts of the territory after sending tribal militias backed by its army.

In 1994, both Houses of the Indian Parliament unanimously passed a resolution reaffirming that the entire erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and calling upon Pakistan to vacate the territories under its occupation.

Fresh showdown looms

With the July 27 elections approaching and the JAAC threatening a "grand and final" phase of agitation, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir appears set for another period of intense political unrest, with long-standing demands over representation, governance and economic rights once again taking centre stage.