Iran on the brink: Protests spark global concerns of a regime-toppling upheaval

Night after night, massive crowds have flooded the streets across the country, challenging the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in what analysts describe as the most serious threat to the Islamic Republic in decades.

Demonstrations that began two weeks ago have spread rapidly from Tehran to dozens of cities.

Despite threats, internet shutdowns and violent crackdowns, hundreds of thousands of Iranians have reportedly defied security forces, marking an unprecedented wave of resistance in a nation of nearly 90 million people.

Trump fuels tensions with threats of action

The unrest has drawn strong reactions from US President Donald Trump, who recently oversaw the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Trump has repeatedly hinted at possible military action against Iran, saying Washington is “looking very seriously” at the situation.

“We’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, confirming that US military commanders have briefed him on potential strike plans.

The rhetoric has sent shockwaves through global markets, with Brent crude jumping more than five percent to above $63 a barrel as investors fear supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer.

Death toll and arrests continue to rise

Human rights groups estimate that more than 500 people have been killed since the protests began, while over 10,000 have reportedly been arrested.

The demonstrations were initially sparked by economic collapse, rampant inflation and a currency crisis, but have since evolved into a broader uprising against political repression and corruption.

Authorities have imposed widespread internet and phone blackouts in an attempt to suppress information.

Several foreign airlines have cancelled flights to Iran amid security concerns.

Trump has also said he will speak to Elon Musk about deploying Starlink satellite internet to restore connectivity inside Iran.

Global stakes: Oil, power and alliances

Analysts say a collapse of Iran’s regime would have major implications for energy markets and global politics.

William Usher, a former CIA Middle East analyst, called this “the biggest moment in Iran since 1979,” when the Islamic Republic was born.

“The regime is in a very tough spot. The economy is the primary driver,” Usher said, warning that Tehran has limited tools left to regain control.

Oil traders are watching closely. While Iran’s main oil-producing province, Khuzestan, has not yet seen unrest, exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi has urged petroleum workers to strike, echoing the crippling oil shutdowns that helped topple his father’s monarchy in 1978.

Regional powers on high alert

Israel, which recently clashed with Iran during a US-backed air war, is coordinating with European governments.

A senior European official said a regime collapse would weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has already lost key allies, including Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

Gulf nations are also deeply concerned.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar fear that chaos in Iran could destabilise the region, reminiscent of the Arab Spring fallout.

Despite tensions, they have sought improved ties with Tehran to avoid retaliation.

Iran has warned that any attack would make American assets and Israel “legitimate targets.”

Military power still a factor

Despite economic decay and political pressure, Iran retains formidable military capabilities.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls a vast arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of striking across the Middle East, including oil facilities and military bases.

Experts caution that US or Israeli strikes could strengthen nationalist sentiment and undermine the protest movement, as seen during last year’s conflict.

What's next?

According to senior geopolitical experts, the regime is unlikely to survive in its current form beyond 2026, but a full collapse remains uncertain.

They also suggest a leadership reshuffle or a possible IRGC-led coup as more likely scenarios.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attempted to strike a conciliatory tone, calling for unity and dialogue on state television.

However, protesters remain sceptical, as the supreme leader and security forces continue issuing threats, including the use of capital punishment.

Fears of violent fallout

Analysts warn that a sudden power vacuum could lead to internal fragmentation, ethnic conflicts and widespread violence.

“I don’t think a collapse would be pretty,” Usher said. “There’s a strong possibility of large-scale violence as the IRGC fights to save the regime.”

As the protests intensify, the world watches closely. Whether Iran emerges reformed, militarised, or plunged into chaos could reshape geopolitics for decades to come.