French President Macron appoints centrist leader Francois Bayrou as new Prime Minister

Bayrou's appointment comes after Michel Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence motion, with by an overwhelming 331 votes, 43 more than what was required, backed by both the left and far-right MPs. 

Bayrou’s immediate priority will be securing parliamentary approval for a special law to extend the 2024 budget, paving the way for a more contentious battle over the 2025 budget early next year.

This poses a significant challenge for the new prime minister, as Barnier was ousted just three months after his appointment by President Emmanuel Macron due to his controversial attempt to push through the budget using special constitutional powers.

Both the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) and the far-right National Rally, with leader Marine Le Pen, deemed the budget "toxic for the French."

Finally, their joint resistance to the 2025 proposal led to the downfall of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government.

The 73-year-old Bayrou, a long-time ally of Macron, is set to announce his ministerial lineup in the coming days.

However, he is likely to face the same daunting challenges as his predecessor in managing a deeply divided parliament dominated by three rival factions.

Compounding his difficulties is his association with Macron, whose popularity has plummeted.

France's ongoing political instability has raised concerns about Macron’s ability to complete his second term, set to end in 2027.

73-year-old Bayrou is a long-time ally of Macron. (Photo courtesy: x.com/bayrou)

It has also increased the country’s borrowing costs and created a leadership void in Europe, just as Donald Trump gears up for return to the U.S. presidency.

In the wake of Barnier’s resignation, Macron held discussions with leaders across the political spectrum, from conservatives to Communists, to rally support for Bayrou.

However, far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and the hard-left France Unbowed were excluded from these talks.

The involvement of the Socialist Party in any coalition could come at a high cost for Macron. “Now we will see how many billions the support of the Socialist Party will cost,” a government adviser remarked.

No election before summer

Macron is counting on Bayrou to avert no-confidence votes until at least July, when the country could hold new parliamentary elections.

However, another government collapse could cast doubt on Macron’s political future.

Bayrou, the founder of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party and a key member of Macron’s coalition since 2017, brings significant political experience.

A three-time presidential candidate, he draws on his rural roots as the former mayor of Pau in southwestern France.

Previously appointed justice minister by Macron in 2017, Bayrou resigned after just a few weeks amid allegations of his party’s misuse of parliamentary assistants. This year, he was cleared of any wrongdoing.

Bayrou’s leadership will face an early test with the 2025 budget proposal, which is expected to include austerity measures.

The fragmented National Assembly, rendered nearly unmanageable after Macron’s June snap election, ensures that his tenure will be fraught with uncertainty and reliant on managing opposition forces.

Barnier’s earlier proposal for the 2025 budget aimed to save €60 billion to reassure investors worried about France’s 6% deficit.

However, the far-right and left-wing factions criticized the plan as overly austere. The failure to break the impasse has exacerbated France’s financial woes, pushing borrowing costs even higher.