IMD releases July rainfall data and Aug-Sep forecast

In 2016, the Southwest monsoon rainfall was 11 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA) in June, but was 7 per cent above LPA in July.

A north-south belt comprising the states and meteorological sub-divisions, such as West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, North interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu, have received wide spread and excess rainfall during July 2016.

It has completely wiped out the 11 per cent deficiency of June rainfall as the cumulative rainfall for the first half of the monsoon season (June-July) is normal with nil departure from the LPA.

According to IMD data, out of the last 46 years since 1970, for 34 years July month rainfall was below 100 per cent of LPA .

During past 10 years, 2016 is the only year after 2013 and 2010, when July month rainfall has been above 100 per cent of LPA.

Forecast for second half (August-September) of 2016 monsoon:

(a) Rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September) is most likely to be above normal (more than 106 per cent of LPA) with a probability of 55 per cent.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107 per cent of LPA with a model error of ±8 per cent.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 per cent or ± 9 per cent of LPA as was forecast in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106 per cent or ±4 per cent of LPA as was forecasted in June.