India’s LNG imports to double by 2030: IEA report
New Delhi: The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday projected that India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports will more than double by 2030, driven by sustained demand growth and a slower-than-anticipated rise in domestic production.
According to the IEA’s latest report on India’s natural gas sector, LNG demand in the country is expected to grow at an annual rate of 11% between 2023 and 2030—twice the average pace recorded over the past decade.
The agency estimates LNG consumption will reach 64 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2030, while overall gas consumption is set to rise by 60% from 2023 levels to 103 bcm.
The expansion of the city gas distribution sector is anticipated to be the key driver of gas consumption growth, with heavy industries and refiners also contributing to rising demand.
Domestic gas production is expected to see only moderate growth.
The IEA stated, “Overall growth will be tempered by plateauing output from the (Reliance-BP’s) KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC’s Mumbai offshore fields, leaving production in 2030 (at just under 38 bcm) only around 8% higher than 2023 levels.”
The agency also noted that meeting the projected LNG demand increase will require additional import capacity.
India is looking to increase the share of gas in its energy mix and the report identifies potential for even higher growth under an accelerated scenario, where targeted policy measures could push total demand to approximately 120 bcm by 2030 – comparable to the current gas consumption of South America.
This scenario would require additional policy support to drive higher utilisation of gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, and more rapid expansion of city gas infrastructure.
Looking ahead, the report emphasises the need for strategic planning in LNG procurement and import infrastructure.
As legacy contracts expire, India faces a widening gap between contracted supply and projected demand after 2028, potentially increasing exposure to spot market volatility unless new long-term contracts are secured in the coming years.
The key findings of the report are being presented at India Energy Week in Delhi on 12 February.
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