India’s economy resilient amid global shocks, focus remains on growth and stability: RBI Guv

“Growth has been upbeat and broadly in line with projections. While uncertainty has become a pervasive feature of contemporary discourse, its tangible effects on the real economy have, thus far, been muted,” Malhotra said, adding that global growth remains below potential due to diverging country trajectories, Business Standard reported.

He cited India’s strong macro fundamentals—including robust foreign exchange reserves, low inflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and sound bank balance sheets—crediting policymakers and market participants for stability.

“Despite all odds, the economy seems well settled into an equilibrium of resilient growth,” he noted, contrasting India’s steadiness with fragility in advanced economies.

Highlighting domestic growth prospects, Malhotra said, “India's past years’ growth gives us the confidence that India can grow at 7–8 percent,” while reaffirming the RBI’s focus on price stability alongside growth.

He mentioned the ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, clarifying, “The Reserve Bank has a view which is communicated to the government, and the final buck is with the government.”

On governance, he said, “India has done very well in giving the Reserve Bank the independence where it is required, but with accountability.”

Reflecting on recent challenges, he added, “The last five years were defined by supply chain shocks that have left scars, with Covid and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” noting high inflation pressures globally and in India.

Malhotra acknowledged the limits of policy tools during crises: “Monetary policy is ineffective to deal with supply side inflation… By February 2025, inflation was well within the 4 percent target.”

On central banking in recent decades, he observed, “They have traversed through a past period of deceptive calm to one of perpetual crisis management… Their explanatory and predictive power is being questioned… The very nature of their roles has evolved from fine-tuning stable economies to acting as first line of defence against overlapping global shocks.”

Concluding with a metaphor, he said, “You cannot control the storm, but you can certainly steer the ship. That is what central bankers are meant for.”