Russia plans new route to India? Moscow floats Railway link to Indian Ocean

Speaking to TASS, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said Moscow should consider developing a rail link to the Indian Ocean to reduce risks associated with the Bosphorus and Strait of Hormuz.

“A rail link to the Indian Ocean should also be explored. Risks related to the Bosphorus and the Strait of Hormuz might require alternative routes: through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Any options providing access to India are acceptable,” he told the news agency.

However, the proposed railway remains at the discussion stage and there is currently no confirmed timeline for its construction.

Russia seeks alternative to Strait of Hormuz

Khusnullin’s remarks come amid an ongoing Middle East crisis following the conflict between the US and Iran that began on February 28, which has disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The proposed rail corridor could offer Russia an alternative route for transporting goods towards the Indian Ocean without relying entirely on existing maritime routes.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the vulnerability of global trade to dependence on a single maritime chokepoint, with early data indicating sharp declines in exports of energy, fertilisers and industrial products.

Natural gas exports plunged by 95 per cent, according to an analysis published by the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral agency with a joint mandate with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime corridor

Located south of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz handles around one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas shipments and fertiliser exports, including roughly one-third of globally traded urea.

Since the military escalation in late February, reduced commercial traffic, concerns over navigational safety and rising transportation and insurance costs have affected trade flows well beyond the region.

Although recent lulls in fighting have raised hopes of a broader resumption of shipping, traffic through the strait remains significantly below normal levels.

Strategic products affected

The ITC analysis examined 12 strategically important energy, fertiliser and industrial products for which economies dependent on the Strait of Hormuz are major global suppliers.

The group includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Trade data for April showed that combined merchandise exports across the 12 products from these economies declined by 21 per cent in value.

However, the ITC noted that export values are also influenced by significant movements in international commodity prices triggered by the disruption. Changes in physical export volumes therefore provide additional insight into the actual scale of the trade disruption.

LNG exports plunge 95 per cent

Across all 12 products, export volumes fell between April 2025 and April 2026, with combined volumes declining by 54 per cent.

Liquefied natural gas recorded the steepest contraction, with export volumes plunging by 95 per cent.

Urea exports declined by 83 per cent, followed by methanol at 80 per cent and ammonia at 75 per cent.

Polymers of propylene, or polypropylene, which are widely used in plastic packaging and consumer goods, were among the least affected, with exports declining by 24 per cent.

The largest absolute losses were recorded in energy products. Crude petroleum oil exports fell by around 28 million tonnes, while refined petroleum oils and liquefied natural gas exports declined by 7.3 million tonnes and 5.5 million tonnes, respectively.

“Sizeable falls in fertilizers, chemicals, plastics and aluminium show that the disruption affected a broader range of industries and supply chains,” the ITC authors noted.

The proposed Russian rail corridor could therefore gain strategic importance if Moscow proceeds with plans to develop alternative trade routes linking Russia to the Indian Ocean and markets such as India.