Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO set for Nasdaq lift-off as $250 billion demand fuels Wall Street frenzy

The order book for the IPO is set to close on Thursday, with pricing expected shortly afterwards and trading scheduled to begin on Nasdaq later the same day.

According to Reuters, SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion through the offering and has already attracted more than $250 billion in investor interest, making the deal more than three times oversubscribed.

The overwhelming demand has cemented the offering's status as one of the most closely watched market events in recent years, while also raising expectations for a strong debut once trading begins.

Demand surges as investors rush for allocation

Market participants have continued to pile into the offering despite the fixed-price structure adopted by SpaceX.

Unlike most IPOs, where underwriters adjust the price range based on investor demand during the book-building process, SpaceX has fixed its offer price at $135 per share.

Investors must therefore decide whether to participate at that valuation without the usual price adjustments.

Reports indicate that demand has climbed from around $150 billion earlier in the week to more than $250 billion, highlighting intense interest in the company.

In Wall Street terms, the deal is now several times oversubscribed, meaning orders significantly exceed the number of shares available for allocation.

Investors often place larger orders than they expect to receive in highly sought-after offerings, hoping to secure a meaningful allocation once shares are distributed.

At a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion to $1.8 trillion, SpaceX is poised to become one of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States immediately upon listing.

Synthetic trading offers clues to market expectations

With the official IPO price fixed, traders have turned to crypto-linked derivatives markets for indications of how SpaceX shares may perform once trading begins.

The most closely watched instrument is SPCX, a five-times leveraged perpetual futures contract traded on the cryptocurrency platform Hyperliquid.

The contract serves as a synthetic representation of SpaceX's equity value and has become one of the few actively traded markets providing real-time price discovery ahead of the IPO.

SPCX recently traded around $157 to $162, implying a premium of roughly 16 percent to 20 percent over the $135 offer price.

The contract previously traded above $220 shortly after its launch in May, reflecting significantly higher expectations at the time.

Since then, it has fallen around 27 percent, reducing the implied first-day premium from nearly 60 percent to current levels.

Despite the decline, traders continue to price in a positive opening for the stock.

What the SPCX contract represents

Market analysts note that SPCX does not provide ownership of SpaceX shares.

The instrument is a cash-settled derivative that allows traders to speculate on where SpaceX stock may trade after listing.

Holders receive no allocation rights and have no ownership claim on the company.

Unlike traditional IPO indications of interest, traders participating in perpetual futures contracts commit real capital and can incur losses before the underlying stock begins trading.

The contract's performance therefore provides a market-based indication of sentiment, although it is not considered a direct predictor of post-listing performance.

Analysts see optimism, but not euphoria

According to market observers, pricing in the perpetual futures market suggests confidence in the IPO but not excessive exuberance.

"Perpetuals on Hyperliquid suggest there's interest in the SpaceX IPO, but it's far from euphoric," Eric Chen, co-founder and chief executive of Injective Labs, told media outlets.

"These markets are dominated by very active, risk-tolerant traders, and they aren't pricing in a massive premium versus other pre-IPO names. It's a useful signal, but not a guarantee of how the broader market will react once SpaceX actually lists," he said.

Chen added that the relatively modest premium raises questions about how sustainable demand will remain once full market liquidity arrives and broader price discovery begins.

Crypto weakness weighs on sentiment

The decline in SPCX has coincided with broader weakness across cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin and Ether have both retreated significantly from recent highs since the synthetic SpaceX contract launched in May.

Analysts suggest that some investors may also be selling crypto assets to free up capital for participation in the SpaceX IPO, adding further pressure to digital asset markets.

Even so, the futures market continues to indicate expectations of a double-digit gain when SpaceX begins trading.

If shares rise to levels implied by current futures pricing, SpaceX's valuation could exceed $2 trillion shortly after listing, placing the company among the most valuable corporations in the world.

Historic listing draws global attention

SpaceX's IPO is already being described as one of the most significant stock market events in recent history.

The offering is expected to surpass many previous landmark listings in both size and investor interest.

The company is also reportedly allocating a larger portion of shares to retail investors than is typical in most major IPOs.

As the final hours of the book-building process unfold, investors and analysts remain focused on whether demand will continue to climb and how the market will react when trading officially begins on Nasdaq on June 12.

With more than $250 billion in orders chasing a $75 billion offering, SpaceX's market debut is set to become one of the defining business stories of the year.