Odisha’s GSDP declines in 2018-19 owing to lower agriculture production: Economic Survey

The decline of  the GSDP  was reflected  in the Odisha Economic Survey report for 2019-20 tabled in the state Assembly today. The growth in economy of the state is largely driven by agriculture, manufacturing and mining sub sectors,the report  said.

However, Odisha  has registered higher economic growth of 6.16 per cent in 2019-20 compared to all India growth of 5 per cent.

According to the survey report ,the industries sector showed rising trend from 2015-16 to 2018-19 before declining marginally at 39.6 per cent in 2019-20.

On the  other hand the  share of services sectors exceeded both industries and agriculture and allied sector and kept on rising from 38.5 per cent in 2011-12 to 43.3 percent in 2015-16, after which it declined to  39.9 per cent in 2016-17 and  again rose to  41.6 percent in 2017-18.

But it again decelerated to 40.2 per cent in 2018-19 and remained at 40.5 per cent in 2019-20.

The expansion of services sector has also immense potential to generate employment in formal sector. Tourism sector is also a major engine of growth that contributes significantly in terms of GSDP, Foreign  exchange earnings and employment.

The cyclone of 2019-20 may cause a contraction in agricultural output. The sector needs boost in activities like livestock rearing and aquaculture to support higher growth in agriculture and allied sector as they have the potential to be the drivers of sustainable and agricultural growth, the survey report said.

After dip in growth in 2014-15, as mining and manufacturing decelerated the growth of Odisha recovered in 2015-16 to 8 per cent and thereafter it jumped to 15.6 per cent in 2016-17 due to high production in agriculture, more fiscal consolidation, and increase in manufacturing output.

Growth softened further  in 2017-18 with 6.3 per cent owing to reduced agriculture production and contraction in manufacturing and mining sector.

In 2018-19 it rose further to 7.9 per cent due to higher agriculture production along with fiscal consolidation.

In 2019-20 it is expected to grow at 6.16 per cent as per advance estimate of GSDP due to lower agriculture production and deceleration in mining  and manufacturing.

The Economic Survey report said the GDP of the state has been growing at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent .It has enabled the state’s‘ output to grow at a faster pace than the national GDP in the last eight years except in 2014-15.

The per capita income of Odisha has  increased from Rs.48,370 in 2011-12 to Rs.101,587 in 2019-20.

But the growth of per capita income witnessed fluctuating trend over the years. It reached 19.6 percent growth in 2016-17 from 2.26 per cent in 2015-16 but declined to 9.4 per cent  in  2017-18 and  rose to  12.63 per cent in 2018-19.

The Economic Survey report said a skewed pattern existed in sectoral composition of GSDP since 2011-12. During the period the share of agriculture and allied sector fluctuated due to natural shocks.

The share of crop sector dominated other components of Agriculture and allied sector although it fluctuated more compared to other sub sectors like livestock, forestry and fishery.

But it’s average share remained at 12.7 per cent over the years. In 2019-20 the share of crop  declined to 11 per cent from 11.6 per cent in 2018-19 due to lower production.

In industries sector, manufacturing with average share of 17.7 per cent overtook mining, construction, electricity, gas, and water supply showing an upward movement from 2016-17 with 19 per cent and remained at 18.4 per cent in 2017-18, 18. 9 per cent in 2018-19 and 18.1 per cent in 2019-20.

Mining with average share of 10.2 per cent showed increasing trend from 2017-18 to 2019-20 with 9.4 per cent in 2017-18, 10.3 in 2018-19, and 11.1 per cent in2019-20.

The average share of construction sector was 7.9 percent and it exhibited downward movement from 2014-15 on wards. The share of electricity, gas, and water supply sub component remained constant at about 3.6 per cent over the years.

In service sector trade, hotel and restaurant contributed highest average share of 9.9 per cent followed by other services with 7.9 per cent and real estate and others with 7.6 per cent.

The average annual inflation in Odisha based on CPI remained stable between 2 and 3 per cent during 2017-18 to 2018-19 and increased to 3.8 per cent in 2019-20 till December.