India has maximum deaths due to Covid, says WHO in report, govt calls it incorrect, statistically unsound

Stating that the country has an "extremely robust" system of births and deaths registration, the Union health ministry, in its rebuttal, called the WHO's system of data collection "statistically unsound and scientifically questionable". 

In a report released earlier in the day, WHO said between January 2020 and December 2021, there were 4.7 million "excess" Covid deaths in India -- the maximum number that's 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally.

The global figure, according to the report, was 15 million -- more than double the official figure of 6 million.

In its statement, the Union Health Ministry said: "India has been consistently objecting to the methodology adopted by WHO to project excess mortality estimates based on mathematical models. Despite India’s objection to the process, methodology and outcome of this modelling exercise, WHO has released the excess mortality estimates without adequately addressing India’s concerns."

India had also informed WHO that in view of the availability of authentic data published through Civil Registration System (CRS) by Registrar General of India (RGI), mathematical models should not be used for projecting excess mortality numbers for India, it said.

"Registration of births and deaths in India is extremely robust and is governed by decades-old statutory legal framework i.e.'Births & Deaths Registration Act, 1969'. The Civil Registration data as well as Sample Registration data released annually by RGI has been used by a large number of researchers, policy makers and scientists both domestically & globally," the health ministry statement added.

India had pointed out the inconsistencies in the criteria and assumption used by WHO to classify Countries into Tier I and II as well as questioned the very basis for placing India into Tier II countries (for which a mathematical modelling estimate is used). India had also underlined the fact that given the accuracy of the Mortality Data collected through an effective and robust statutory system, India doesn’t deserve to be placed in Tier II countries. WHO till date has not responded to India’s contention.

India has consistently questioned WHO’s own admission that data in respect of seventeen Indian states was obtained from some websites and media reports and was used in their mathematical model, the ministry said.

"This reflects a statistically unsound and scientifically questionable methodology of data collection for making excess mortality projections in the case of India," the statement alleged.

"Throughout the process of dialogue, engagement and communication with WHO, WHO has projected different excess mortality figures for India citing multiple models, which itself raises questions on the validity and robustness of the models used," it said.

India objected to the use of Global Health Estimates (GHE) 2019 in one of the models used by WHO for calculating excess mortality estimates for India. GHE itself is an estimate.

"Therefore, a modeling approach which provides mortality estimates on the basis of another estimate, while totally disregarding the actual data available within the Country exhibits a lack of academic rigour," the health ministry pointed out.

"The test positivity rate (another key variable used by WHO) for Covid-19 in India was never uniform throughout the country at any point of time. Such a modeling approach fails to take into account the variability in COVID positivity rate both in terms of space and time within the country. The model also fails to take into account the rate of testing and impact of different diagnostic methods (RAT/RT-PCR) used in different geographies," it added.