The second poll for the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) is scheduled to be held on April 9, 2010. The BTC was created under the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution (which deals with the Administration of Tribal Areas in the States of Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram) back in February 2003 over the four contiguous Districts of Kokrajhar, Baksa, Udalguri and Chirang.
Despite the completion of seven years of the BTC, the Bodo insurgency remains intact in Assam, though the trajectory of violence has seen sharp irregularities.
Official sources indicate that violence in BTC areas increased by 74 percent in 2009, as compared to the previous year. In 2008, a total of 110 persons were killed in Assam in all insurgency-related violence, but in 2009, 194 people – at least 127 in Bodo-related violence – lost their lives.
This abrupt escalation was attributed principally to fratricidal clashes among different Bodo groups.
The Bodo insurrection accounts for around 44 per cent of insurgency-related fatalities in Assam in the first three months of 2010. Assam is presently the second most violent State in the Northeast, with 55 fatalities (trailing just behind Manipur, with 59 killed).
The violence unleashed by Bodo groups had registered a steady decline in 2003-2007, with a slight variation in 2006. The trend has, however, subsequently taken an abrupt turn for the worse, with annual fatalities involving the groups spurting from just three in 2007 to 98 in 2008. The momentum of acceleration of violence has since been sustained.
2008 had witnessed serial bomb blasts in Guwahati, Kokrajhar, Barpeta and Bongaigaon, on October 30, which claimed 84 lives and injured over 300. While initial suspicion fell on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), subsequent evidence indicated that a hit-team of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), under the direction of its ‘president’, Ranjan Daimary, executed the serial bombings in Assam, to demonstrate frustration at the alleged lack of progress in talks between the Bodo group and the Union Government.
These serial blasts, in fact, triggered a split in the outfit into a pro-talks and an anti-talks factions. The NDFB had earlier entered into truce with the Assam Government and Union Government in New Delhi on May 25, 2005, and a cease-fire was declared.
After the serial blasts, the NDFB, on December 15, 2008, held its ‘general assembly’ meeting at Serfanguri designated camp in Kokrajhar District and elected B. Sungthagra as its new ‘president’, replacing Ranjan Daimary. The Sungthagra group became the pro-talks faction, while erstwhile ‘president’, Daimary broke away to lead the anti-talks Bodo group.
Sungathgra had condemned the October 30 serial blasts in no uncertain terms, declaring, "The killing was inhuman and unfortunate; it reveals nothing but his (Daimary’s) sadism. He committed not only crimes against humanity but also violated the ceasefire which he himself declared unilaterally on October 8, 2004.
The act is undoubtedly an act of terrorism and can never be part of revolutionary struggle." Daimary, on the contrary, in a statement issued from Kokrajhar, described his expulsion from the NDFB by the B. Sungthagra-led faction as "ridiculous", "After waging a war for 18 years for the legitimate rights of the Bodo people, when almost all the leaders were either in jail or missing, I declared the ceasefire on October 4, 2004, to solve the Indo-Bodoland issue peacefully and democratically… Now the NDFB shall have no other option but to renew the war for the liberation of Bodoland."
The rift was followed by attacks and revenge attacks by cadres belonging to the two factions in the Bodo populated Districts. On October 8, 2009, for instance, Bodo rights leader and sister of NDFB’s anti-talks faction leader Ranjan Daimary, Anjali Daimary, survived an attempt on her life, when suspected militants opened fire at her vehicle at Barama College in Baksa District.
Further, on October 21, 2009, S. Sangjarang, ‘publicity chief’ of the pro-talks faction, was shot at and injured by unidentified militants at a crowded market in Udalguri Town. Again, on January 2, 2010, a relative of a pro-talks ‘commander’ of the NDFB was shot dead by suspected cadres belonging to the anti-talks faction, at Silapur village in the Balijuri area under Sootea Police Station in Sonitpur District, along the Assam-Arunachal Pradesh border.
The victim was identified as Udai Mushahari, brother of NDFB ‘commander’ M. Failou. Similarly, on January 4, 2010, a 52-year-old schoolteacher, Lilabati Basumatary, Daimary’s elder sister, was shot dead by suspected cadres belonging to the pro-talks faction, at Harisingha Deolguri in the Udalguri District. However, the pro-talks faction subsequently denied its involvement in the killing.
Political activists have frequently been targeted by the violent Bodo groups. In one such attack, on January 14, 2010, a Congress party leader, Arun Sarkar, nominated from Mazbat Assembly constituency to the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC), was shot dead by suspected militants belonging to the anti-talks faction at Khusurabari in Udalguri.
Subsequently, the Congress party in Assam asked its activists in the Bodo area not to venture out after sunset, since security agencies apprehended that the Daimary faction could target them.
An unnamed PCC leader argued that the party had been expecting such a turn of events in the run-up to the BTC elections: "Two factors are involved. One, our party Government has gone all out against the Ranjan Daimary group and they are out to take revenge. Second, the upcoming BTC elections in which the outfit would want to play a crucial role. This could also be a warning to us that we keep out of the polls so that they can take on the Bodo People’s Front, which is headed by former Bodo Liberation Tigers chief Hagrama Mohilary."
Again, on January 22, 2010, unidentified militants exploded a remote-controlled Improvised Explosive Device (IED) on a subway at Garibangha area under the Bijni Police Station of Chirang District along the India-Bhutan border. Two BTC members, Daneswar Goyary and James Basumatary, along with some officials, survived the attack.
Meanwhile, the pro-talks faction declared that it would participate in the upcoming BTC elections. The ‘general secretary’ of the outfit, Gobinda Basumatary, declared, "We might not put up candidates on our own, but would support candidates or political parties that advocate our cause for a separate Bodoland."
The Union Government on December 31, 2009, extended the cease-fire agreement with the pro-talks faction for a further period of six months, up to June 30, 2010. Earlier, tripartite peace talks between the NDFB and the Union and Assam Governments, were held in New Delhi on September 23, 2009.
NDFB 'general secretary' Govinda Basumatary observed, "The first round of dialogue was satisfactory. It has been four years since we surrendered. For the first time we received a positive response." Again, the pro-talks group had met the newly appointed Union Government interlocutor, P.C. Haldar, on February 1, 2010, and had expressed the demand for a separate State within the Indian Union, for the indigenous tribal group.
Nevertheless, there have been signs of some disenchantment with the negotiating process. On March 8, 2010, Assam Forest and Environment Minister Rockybul Hussain informed the State Legislative Assembly that 40 NDFB cadres had deserted their designated camps.
According to one estimate, around 700 pro-talks cadres of the NDFB are confined to three ‘designated camps’ in Kokrajhar, Baksa and Udalguri Districts.
The anti-talks has, meanwhile, consolidated its presence in the four BTC Districts and the adjoining Sonitpur District, establishing safe hideouts in the forests. Earlier, the Manas National Park, stretching over parts of the Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Barpeta, Nalbari, Kamrup and Darang Districts, used to be a hotbed of united NDFB activity.
Currently, the Rowta Reserve Forests in Udalguri District and Sonai Rupai Wildlife Sanctuary in Sonitpur District have emerged as the anti-talks faction’s safe havens. As one Police official disclosed, "The NDFB cadres carry out strikes and vanish into the Reserve Forest. It is difficult to catch them because of the inaccessible areas where they take shelter."
An Army official, commenting on the presence of NDFB cadres in the Sonai Rupai Wildlife Sanctuary stated, "The Park has also turned into a hotbed of militancy. We have reports of the Ranjan Daimary faction of the NDFB having a strong base inside the sanctuary."
The densely forested terrain along the Assam-Arunachal Pradesh border also provides sanctuary to the violent faction of the NDFB.
The Bodo group is active in parts of as many as six Districts of Arunachal Pradesh: East Siang, West Siang, Lower Dibang Valley, Upper Dibang Valley, Lohit and Papum Pare. Arunachal Pradesh Home Minister Tako Dabi, on January 10, 2010, stated that he had recently toured and taken stock of the situation in Mebo and the adjoining areas of East Siang, and the Likabali area of West Siang, where NDFB and ULFA cadres were engaged in extortion activities. He said these groups’ cadres were also smuggling timber out of the forests in Seijosa in East Kameng and the Balijan area of Papum Pare District.
Deputy Inspector-General of Police (East Range), Tashi Lama, further confirmed "The substantial presence of ULFA cadres in East Siang, West Siang, Upper and Lower Dibang Valley Districts, besides movements of NDFB militants in belts of Papum Pare and East Kameng Districts, have raised security concerns in the State."
Another Police officer in East Kameng District stated that NDFB cadres had intensified extortion activities and set up camps in Seijosa, adding that the fact that a suspected NDFB cadre was shot dead in a joint operation in the Khanamukh area under Missamari Police Station of Sonitpur District in Assam, bordering Arunachal’s East Kameng District, on January 5, 2010, indicated that the anti-talks faction of the Bodo group was active in the area.
The Garo Hills area in Meghalya remains a corridor for the movement of cadres of the NDFB’s anti-talk faction across the India-Bangladesh border.
On February 15, 2010, an NDFB anti-talks cadre, identified as Godadhar Hajong, was arrested by the Border Security Force from Debojani village of West Garo Hills District. He disclosed that, following the crackdown in Bangladesh by the Shiekh Hasina Wajed regime, almost all NDFB camps operating close to the border had been shut down, with a majority of cadres shifted to the Rangamati area of the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh.
He also revealed that the NDFB’s main camp at Haluaghat in Bangladesh, opposite Gasuapara in the South Garo Hills sector, had to be closed down in 2006 after its ‘camp commander’, Bongcha Boro, surrendered. Further, he said, some of the NDFB leaders continue to be holed up in Dhaka, including S. S. Dhansuran Boro, the ‘treasurer’ of the anti-talks faction.
Hajong further indicated that cadres were taken to Bangladesh for training and later pushed back to India through three different sectors in the Garo Hills: Beldova in Mahendraganj sector, Nokchi in the Dalu sector and Gasuapara under the Baghmara sector. The movement of NDFB militants through the Chokpot and Nokrek Hills was also confirmed by the arrested cadre.
With the operational expanse of the NDFB’s violent anti-talks faction extending well beyond the Assam State’s territory, and the absence of a coherent and holistic counter-insurgency strategy covering the entire Northeast region, the scope of extinguishing the remnants of the Bodo militancy remain limited.
(Dash is a Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management. Patagundi is a Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management)
(The view expressed in the article is of the authors and not India Blooms News Service)
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