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Small cars on bumpy roads?
Trans World Features
Despite the excitement it brings in fulfilling a common man's dream to own a car, amidst inflation, resource crunch, bad roads and lack of space , Jayalakshmi Sengupta finds out whether the entry of the sub800 cc cars will be a boon or a bane.
From no phones to millions of cell phones and easy connectivity across the nation! It has been one of the greatest feats in "mass transit" ever.
Now 70 years after the appearance of the first small car in Europe, India is waiting to see its common man wake up to the reality of owning a car at last. The euphoria is understandable but under the present conditions (inflation, resource crunch, bad roads and lack of space), will this make things better or worse for us? At the cost of a common man's dream is it a mere media hyperbole to say this may be the most disastrous crossroad for our country?
Development and sustainability must go hand in hand to break through the gridlock of the acute shortage of resources that we are facing globally today. "While innovations cannot stop, we have to be concerned about how to accommodate little dreams into that big picture without losing our balance," says Avijit Bhattacharya, Tata Tubes.
In an expanding economy, with a high growth rate, like that of India, where only 8 out of a thousand own a car, there is no doubt a huge market exists for small cars. The sub-800cc cars are expected to quickly swap the vast two wheeler and auto rickshaw market as well. Joining in this fray with Nano (1000, 000 cars annually) are Nissan Renault in collaboration with Bajaj Auto (400,000 cars annually), Xenitis India in collaboration with China and even Maruti Suzuki. It is just a matter of time before we see these petite palanquins on wheels dot our roads and alleys and whiz about, frequent, familiar and as commonplace as ever.
There are mixed reactions to this.
A large number of the thinkers seem to be weary already. According to famous American economist Friedman, India need not ape the West at all. As in the case of cell phones, India must "leapfrog" into more sustainable models of existence. "The entry of the small car is bound to affect the automobile industry as much as the development of the country. What we have to see whether we can use this innovation to our advantage and leapfrog into a better future" says Bhattacharya.
“In an era of scarce oil, the market is sensitive to rumours about anything that might endanger existing production of oil (which is only 2 percent above the world's total daily consumption today).” Will Tata's Nano along with the others take the country further down into oil dependency, is a point mooted often.
But can the sub-800cc cannot be targeted for that? "Right now India manufactures about 1.4 million vehicles a year. That's expected to double by 2008” (BusinessWeek.com), with or without Nano! Infact come 2010, close to a dozen new small cars are supposed to hit the roads. After 2010, many more launches are expected from Skoda, one each from Honda and Hyundai and even a Rs 2 lakh car from General Motors.
India's monetary policy has consequently been tightened to grapple with this situation. More tax also means better maintenance of roads. Automobile prices are therefore likely to increase by up to Rs 5,000 for mid-segment cars and up to Rs 12,000 for the bigger vehicles and SUVs. According to General Motors India Vice President (Corporate Affairs) P Balendran,"People buying small cars are very cost conscious”, and a larger section may settle for the economic sub 800cc (which will guzzle less petrol anyday).
In fact Nano is also expected to be 12 per cent less polluting as compared to emissions from two-wheelers/three-wheelers. With a lakh or more two wheelers and autorikshaws phasing out over a period of time it could be a snippet of good news for environmentalists. Could this eventually help India to "leap frog" into a better less polluted future?
The next worry is invariably the growing lack of space. Here where more roads are just dirt tracks and where expanding a thoroughfare can boil down to the sensitive issue of either removing a squatter or cutting a tree or encroaching into the farmland,India must first deal with its infrastructure problems .
Will Nano's entry expedite the infrastructure scene of India? "With more cars to tax, there will be more funds to flush in these areas which may be good news too. Paving and maintenance of roads may pick up as a result, especially in remote areas," hopes Rakesh Singhania, MD of a BPO.
Kapil Sibal, the Minister of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences for the Government of India, believes that the Nano "is small, affordable and excellent, and that combination is lethal." It may be the answer to a lot of our problems including employability. India is soon to become as big as Canada which is today world's 8th largest producer of motor vehicles, employing 158,300 people directly.
Incidentally the latest innovations in the passenger car sector has prompted the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) to work on a roadmap for Urban Bus Transportation Systems with newer technologies. "While a rise in disposable incomes has meant an increasing number of personal vehicles, the economy's upward thrust can only be sustained through investment in urban infrastructure, of which Bus Systems form a critical part," agrees Mr. I.V. Rao, Executive Director, Maruti Udyog. Mr. M. Ramachandran - Secretary, Ministry of Urban affair confirms that they are indeed planning to develop efficient, eco-friendly and profitable bus systems for all 0.5 million plus cities. Now if that is not leapfrogging what is?
Hopefully the sub 800 cc will usher in development and a welcome change all around. It will also be wonderful to see small families ignoring the blasting heat or the pouring rains, to enjoy a happy ride. But let us not forget that for every happy face, there will be an equal number of snarling bottlenecks and choked parking lots to deal with, initially. Increasing number of accidents are also inevitable. A new system of issuing driving licenses will have to be found as the exiting one can barely handle the present rush! Work to be done yet – We have to be prepared for some bumpy ride on the roads ahead!
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